SPEAKER_03 31:01–34:05
In its simplest level, it is a representation that you have about how things behave and then how you interact with that. And it's the reason that we have to use something like this because we can't understand. There are too many influences. I mean, if we just talk about, let's just say that we're movement guys. Let's just say that everything we're aware of is about them. It's like, we don't understand it. We just don't. There's just too many things. There are some principles upon which we can rely because they are universal principles. Like everything has to follow physical principles. And so the more we understand those, the more we can try to understand how we demonstrate those principles. But again, we have to use a model because of the level of complexity, at least for me. It's beyond my understanding. There's going to be things that other people and they will understand other elements of this. But for me, it's virtually impossible. You just think about all the possible interactions. You've been in the purple room, and it's just like, even the color of the wall makes a difference. Sure. How much? I don't know. I try to create the home field advantage. But again, you just think about all the possible inputs, like air temperature, color, what their mood is, what they have for breakfast. All of these things are actually factors in creating an end result. We just don't know how much of an interaction they are. And so we have to have a principle-based understanding of what is possible. And then we apply that, we intervene, we observe, and we say, okay, based on my understanding of the principles, here's what just happened. Here's how I can influence this. And then it continues on and on and on. Everybody becomes their own N equals one experiment under those circumstances. And again, so a model is just a way that you represent the world and your understanding that allows you to interact effectively. We're going to be wrong. Right, because we know and you know, is this the point where I get to quote George box is that you have to summon him. I think that he's talking about models you gotta quote George box is like all models are wrong some are useful. And the idea is is is is the your model has to continue to evolve in its representation to allow you to be closer and closer to whatever the truth may be. And the way you identify that is like, so every time I enter being and I shift the probabilities in my favor, I'm getting closer and closer to what is the truth or whatever reality that we can actually see. And so again, the model is just a representation and some models are very, very extensive and some are less or so, yet many people can be effective with different representations.
modelingcomplexityprinciple-based approachn equals one experimentgeorge box