SPEAKER_05 19:45–23:23
Okay, so that's a lot all at once, isn't it? So let's go with this piece by piece, okay? Let's talk about the probability thing. So the probability thing is recognizing the fact that there are so many things that we don't know. And I think that there's an element of a desire to want to know and then to have a limited perspective on what is actually possible and what is actually happening and then how much of an effect do we have on all of that? Like what can we influence? And I think that the younger version of ourselves, because of the limited scope of perspective, it implies that we know something that we don't. Because if I only think that there's three possibilities and I understand those three and then something good happens, I give credit to one of those three things. And that's wrong. So by living a life and having experience, what you start to recognize is there's a lot more influences than we ever thought were possible or that we could ever understand. And so the mature representation is that, okay, I can affect certain things. I can influence certain things. And then there's more unknowns than I could possibly imagine that I do not influence. And so what I try to do now is I try to manage those things that I do have an influence over. And then I observe. And I look at the outcome and I say, was this favorable? If yes, I try to do more of what we just did. And if it's a no, then I have to change something. Knowing full well that I may not have the solution when it comes to doing something else. However, I do have experience. And so I fall back on that. So in the past, when this situation arose, what did I do that was successful? And so I lean on that to help me determine what to do next. So that's why we're playing probabilities because we don't know what the answer is going to be. So maybe, maybe I have a 70% likelihood of being successful by following a certain intervention strategy, but I still have 30% against me, which means that both possibilities, a successful intervention or a failure are always possible because I don't know, I don't know so many things. And so 70% of the time, maybe I'm infinitely successful and 30% of the time, it's nowhere near what I would want it to be. And then everything kind of falls somewhere along that line of probability. But that's how we do everything. And so again, it's like I just respect that. And so understanding that puts you in a place where your humility better kick in because if you still think that you know something that you don't, that can lead to some arrogance and then you're starting to put people at risk.
probabilityhumilityintervention strategyinfluence vs unknowns